Women's self-employment intentions after global shocks: insights from Egypt and Spain

We compare the self-employment intentions of women from different contexts, namely, Egypt and Spain after two recent incidents of global economic collapse - the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. We draw on occupational choice and human capital theories to better understand how the self-employment intentions of women with different age, perceptual and human capital profiles vary in periods of crisis. Consistent with previous studies, the results suggest that intentions of self-employment vary with the specific perceptual and human capital attributes of women. However, the macroeconomic conditions and the context matter since the findings also show that the factors that drive the self-employment intention of women differ from one global shock to another. Moreover, the impact of each global shock in every context is different. These findings provide new guidance for policymakers by acknowledging the relevance of the heterogeneity of women, economic periods and contexts to the choice of self-employment.

CONSTRUCTION OF AN OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO USING THE SINGLE INDEX MODEL: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF PRE AND POST COVID 19

The financial markets have been significantly influenced by Covid-19. Investors have reallocated their portfolios as a result of changing expectations for risk and return. In both academia and industry, building a portfolio via wise stock selection has been seen as a problem. The stock market's inherent uncertainties are to blame for this. Stock selection in a portfolio is impacted by anticipated price movement. The predictability of stock price changes has been disputed for a very long time, however. The random walk hypothesis (Fama, 1995) states that since stock price changes are unpredictable and lack memory, the past cannot foretell the future. Therefore, if the market is efficient, the stock price at the moment represents all the information. Since insider trading is required, it is impossible to outperform the market and is compatible with EMH. Therefore, the quest for effective forecasting techniques does not lead to consistent, long-term trends that can be predicted. According to the findings, investors have begun redistributing their portfolios across other equities in response to the current financial crisis related to COVID-19. But not all investors experience the same situation when switching from risky to riskfree investments. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Pharmaceutical Negative Results is the property of ResearchTrentz and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Social Vulnerability and Macroeconomic Forecast: A Review from the Current Context.

In the current context, various factors add to the existing social and economic crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which, when articulated with common conflicting facts, increase projections regarding the slowdown in the economy, with an impact on inflation and declines in global economic growth. As part of the adverse effects of these variables, if the increase in the cost of basic products and services was anticipated, the supply chain escaped, food safety, the widening of social gaps, poverty, contributing to the massification of restrictive medicines, increasing vulnerabilities in social and political scenarios, in addition to less dynamism in the global economy, in the availability of food resources, increases in energy prices, inflationary pressure, among others. Previously, this investigative note explores the macroeconomic forecast, taking as reference the informants of the year 2022 brought by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Economic Committee for Latin America and the Caribbean and the Inter-American Development Bank. (English) [ FROM AUTHOR] En el contexto actual, diversos factores se suman a la crisis social y económica a existente, como la pandemia COVID-19 y la invasión rusa a Ucrania que, al articularse con los hechos conflictivos comunes, aumentan las proyecciones con respecto a la desaceleración de la economía, con incidencia en la inflación y mermas en el crecimiento económico global. Como parte de los efectos adversos de estas va1riables, se prevé el aumento en el costo de los productos y servicios básicos, escasez en la cadena de suministros, inseguridad alimentaria, ampliación de las brechas sociales, de la pobreza, contribuyendo a la toma de medidas restrictivas, aumentando las vulnerabilidades en los escenarios sociales y en materia política, además de un menor dinamismo en la economía global, en la disponibilidad de recursos alimentarios, aumentos de los precios de la energía, presión inflacionaria, entre otros. En virtud de lo anterior, la presente nota de investigación explora la prognosis macroeconómica, tomando como referentes los informes del año 2022 aportados por el Banco Mundial, el Fondo Monetario Internacional, la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe y el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. (Spanish) [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Revista de Filosofía is the property of Revista de Filosofia-Universidad del Zulia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Financial Crises and Financial Contagion in Latin America

The article deals with modern financial crises and features of their spread in Latin America. The classification of crises and ways of their identification are presented. The interconnectedness of modern financial crises is emphasized, which leads to the emergence of double and triple crises. Such crises have been repeatedly recorded in Argentina, Mexico, Uruguay and other countries. Over a period of more than fifty years, Latin America experienced 165 financial crises, with the largest share of them occurring in currency crises. The article proposes the indicator "crisis burden on the countries of Latin America" - its calculation for the period 1970-2019 showed that the region is characterized by alternating growth and decrease in the burden from banking and currency crises with a relatively stable load from debt crises. The maximum intensity of financial crises was observed in the 1970-1980, and then it decreased, although there were isolated spikes. The interconnectedness of crises is analyzed in the context of the effects of financial contagion - the transmission of shocks through different channels from one country or region to another country or region. Two main approaches explaining the mechanisms of transmission of crises between countries have been allocated. The results of studies indicating the direction and extent of financial contagion in Latin America were discussed. In particular, it is shown that contagion in the crisis periods of 1990-2000 spread both within the region and from the United States through trade and financial channels. The article presents the results of its own empirical study, which also confirmed the existence of contagion in this region. For the calculations, daily data on the stock indices of 8 Latin American countries over a long period of time were used. With the help of econometric tests for shifts in correlations (Forbes-Rigobon test and coskewness test), it was found that the recipients of contagion that spread through the stock market channels from the United States during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 were countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. During the crisis caused by the spread of COVID-19, only Mexico was susceptible to contagion. This made it possible to draw a conclusion about the resilience of Latin American economies to the pandemic shock and the effectiveness of restrictive government measures.

Dividend policy, its asymmetric behavior and stock liquidity

Purpose: This paper examines the impact of dividend policy on stock market liquidity, and whether the dividend payouts has an asymmetric effect on stock liquidity. Design/methodology/approach: A multivariate panel-data regression analysis is conducted for a sample of the largest 411 nonfinancial US firms. Three main hypothesis are tested: (1) whether dividend payouts impact affect stock liquidity, (2) whether low and high dividend payments can asymmetrically effect on stock liquidity and (3) whether the presence of the GFC has an impact the relationship between dividend payments and stock liquidity. Findings: The study finds that dividend policy is adversely associated with stock liquidity. This supports the prediction of the liquidity-dividend hypothesis. The authors also report that stock liquidity asymmetrically responds to changes in dividend payouts, confirming the prediction of the dividend-signaling approach. More specifically, higher dividend payments decrease stock liquidity by a lower magnitude than the increase in stock liquidity resulting from lower dividend payments. Finally, the presence of the GFC weakened the relationship between dividend payments and stock liquidity. Research limitations/implications: The paper can help in performing future research by using different dataset covering the COVID-19 crisis. Practical implications: The paper allows market participants to better understand the impact of dividend policy and its asymmetric effects on stock liquidity. The authors' analyses can direct investors and regulators to adopt new supervisory devices to create an appropriate level of dividend payouts that helps to effectively support the level of stock liquidity. Social implications: The paper intends to support the business community and to make strong contributions to the economic development and the welfare of the community. Originality/value: The originality comes from its new evidence as it can help in assessing the importance of dividend policy and its asymmetric impact on stock liquidity in the full sample and during the GFC. The paper is helpful in performing future analyses using a new sample period for another set of data as well as accounting for COVID-19 pandemic crisis. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Economic Studies is the property of Emerald Publishing Limited and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE SHARING ECONOMY MODEL BASED ON A VIRTUAL COMMUNITY CURRENCY.

After the economic crisis of 2008, the need for solutions that introduce alternative forms of cooperation between economic actors increased greatly. At the same time, concerns for the environment have intensified, and the integration of environmental considerations in economic activities has become increasingly important. As a response, peer-to-peer economy and peer-to-peer payment systems, among other things, have emerged. Compared with previous economic crises, the COVID-19 pandemic has posed new challenges for everyone, which could lead to the intensification of alternative path-finding processes. The ecological problems the we face mean that the aim should be to go beyond the restoration of previous economic mechanisms prioritising ecological sustainability. In this study, the authors' aim was to present the elements of a novel solution concept that is based on the hypothesis that a digital community currency created through smart contracts can promote genuine practices of sharing as opposed to the currently operating platforms' profit-oriented approach. (English) [ FROM AUTHOR] A 2008-as gazdasági válságot követően megnőtt az érdeklődés az olyan üzleti modellek iránt, amelyek a szereplők közötti együttműködés alternatív formáit biztosítják. Ezzel egyidejűleg a környezetszennyezéssel kapcsolatos aggodalmak is felerősödtek és a környezeti szempontok gazdasági tevékenységekbe történő integrálása egyre fontosabbá vált. Erre válaszul jelentek meg többek között a közösségi gazdasági és a peer-to-peer fizetési rendszerek. A COVID-19 világjárvány hatásai a korábbi gazdasági válságokhoz képest is új kihívások elé állítják a gazdasági szereplőket, ami az alternatív útkeresési folyamatok ismételt előtérbe kerüléséhez vezethet. Az előttünk álló ökológiai problémák miatt azonban a járványt követően a korábbi gazdasági mechanizmusok helyreállításán túl a célnak egy az ökológiai lábnyom csökkentését elősegítő gazdasági modell kiépítésének kell lennie. Ebben a tanulmányban a szerzők célja egy újszerű megoldási koncepció elemeinek bemutatása, amely azon a hipotézisen alapul, hogy az intelligens szerződések révén létrehozott digitális közösségi valuta elősegítheti a megosztás valódi gyakorlatát, szemben a jelenleg működő sharing economy platformok profitorientált megközelítésével. (Hungarian) [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Vezetéstudomány / Budapest Management Review is the property of Corvinus University of Budapest and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Explaining the response of the ECB to the COVID-19 related economic crisis: inter-crisis and intra-crisis learning

The economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have placed a renewed strain on the economic governance of the European Union (EU). The European Central Bank (ECB) was a key player in the EU's response to the crisis induced by the pandemic. This paper adopts a theoretical approach focused on policy learning to explain how and why the ECB responded to the crisis in 2020–2021. By drawing on speeches, newspaper articles and interviews with policy-makers, the paper finds that the ECB was able to rely on earlier crisis experiences in the euro area in forming its response to the pandemic crisis. Although the sovereign debt crisis and the pandemic crisis had both similarities and differences from one another, the ECB was able to engage in inter-crisis and intra-crisis learning. Its learning concerned objectives, instruments as well as an awareness that timely and forceful response was crucial, so that the member states and other EU institutions had time to act. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of European Public Policy is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Next generation EU and the future of economic governance: towards a paradigm change or just a big one-off?

Next Generation EU (NGEU), the new temporary program (2021-2026) decided by the European Union (EU) to deal with the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, represents a substantial break with respect to previous EU responses to economic crises. After identifying the discontinuity introduced by the NGEU compared to the governance response to the sovereign debt crisis of the early 2010s, the paper investigates the conditions under which a new paradigm of economic governance would emerge and not remain simply a major one-off, when the EU should deal with an exogenous shock. Those conditions are conceptualised in terms of three trilemmas. The possibility of the NGEU becoming the harbinger of a new paradigm of economic governance will depend on the solutions of those trilemmas – favouring the EU supranational institutions, promoting a new policy mix in fiscal policy, and implementing national reforms coherent with the EU's aims notwithstanding national electoral cycles. The solutions are then evaluated according to the 'Monnet Compatibility Test' (MCT) which implies coherence between the institutional, economic and political features of the new economic governance arrangements. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of European Public Policy is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Crisis Periods Detection on NASDAQ Index Via EEMD-AE

It is proposed to identify the beginning and end of the SARS-CoV-2 and subprime crises on the NASDAQ. The EEMD was used to decompose the index into consecutive series with the same number of components and their correlation coefficients were calculated, the power spectrum of the original series was also analyzed. Signals of instability associated with changes in both the components' correlations and the NASDAQ spectrum were identified. It is recommended to apply the procedure on other series and other crises;likewise, the method is based on the detection of discrepancies, thus being a monitoring tool, but not one of quantitative forecasts. The originality of the work lies in the use of the modified EEMD for the decomposition of consecutive series in the same number of components, and the use of the correlation coefficient between components and the spectrum of the original series as measures of system stability. The approach proved to be useful for identifying and anticipating large changes in the behavior of a time series. © 2022 The authors.

Teaching an undergraduate elective on the Great Recession (and the COVID-19 recession too)

The authors describe an undergraduate economics elective focused on the Great Recession and the recession resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. They have taught the course with great success at both liberal arts colleges and research universities and at all levels of the curriculum ranging from a first-year seminar to an upper-level elective. They present a roadmap for instructors interested in offering the class. Although intermediate macroeconomics is assumed as a prerequisite, the authors discuss how they have adapted the class for students with different backgrounds. The course is divided into seven units: the housing bubble and asset pricing, housing policy and history, propagation and panic, monetary policy, fiscal policy, aftermath and international perspectives, and the macroeconomics of COVID-19. Sample assignments and readings are both provided. © 2022 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Bubble contagion effect between the main precious metals

Purpose: This study examines the extent to which gold and silver bubbles are correlated and which metal's bubble spills over to the other. In addition, the overlap in bubble-like episodes for the two metals is demonstrated and the influence of crises (global financial crises, European debt crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic) on the development of these episodes is compared. Design/methodology/approach: This study proposes a two-step approach. In the first step, price bubbles are identified based on the backward sup augmented Dickey–Fuller of Phillips et al. (2015a, 2015b) and modified by Phillips and Shi (2018). In the second step, the correlation in the contagion effect of the bubbles between the two precious metal prices is measured using a nonparametric regression with a time-varying coefficient approach developed by Greenaway-McGrevy and Phillips (2016). Findings: The findings suggest that the safe-haven property of gold and silver during financial market turbulence induces excessive price increases beyond their fundamental values. Furthermore, the results indicate that bubbles are contagious among precious metal markets and flow mainly from gold to silver;these findings are associated with the period after 2005, particularly during the global financial crisis. A contagious bubble effect is not found between gold and silver during the coronavirus disease 2020 pandemic. Practical implications: The results suggest that financial market participants should consider portfolio weights in precious markets in light of the bubble correlation between gold and silver, especially during crises. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that explores the correlation of bubble-like episodes between gold and silver. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Global DSGE models

We introduce our GDSGE framework and a novel global solution method, called simultaneous transition and policy function iterations (STPFIs), for solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The framework encompasses many well-known incomplete markets models with highly nonlinear dynamics such as models of financial crises and models with rare disasters including the current COVID-19 pandemic. Using consistency equations, our method is most effective at solving models featuring endogenous state variables with implicit laws of motion such as wealth or consumption shares. Finally, we incorporate this method in an automated and publicly available toolbox that solves many important models in the aforementioned topics, and in many cases, more efficiently and/or accurately than their original algorithms. © 2023 Elsevier Inc.

A constitutional perspective on the connection between the state and the economy. Implications of the fundamental right in a decent standard of living

Starting from an indisputable reality, namely that the numerous global and interconnected crises (pandemic crisis, biodiversity crisis, economic crisis and energy crisis, etc.) exacerbate the cost of living crisis and affect the right to a decent standard of living in all states of the world, the present study proposes a "radiography" of the decent standard of living in Romania - between the constitutional consecration and the social reality. The coordinates of the state-economy connection and of the standard of living in the consecration of the Romanian Constitution are presented. It starts from the proclamation of Romania - by the very article 1 of the Constitution, as a "governed by law, democratic and social state" and the provisions of art. 47-"Standard of living" and of art. 135 "Economy" are briefly analysed. Statistical data and conclusions from the "Social report: Quality of life during the pandemic: problems and response policies. A synthetic point of view" are highlighted. The cost of living crisis in Romania is observed from the point of view of the data provided by the study on the quality of life and social well-being - 2022, carried out by Social Progress Imperative with the support of Deloitte and by the conclusions expressed by the People's Advocate in the "Special report on respect of the right to work and the social protection of work", published on January 26th, 2022. It is stated that the Romanian state continues to be, in the social sphere and from the point of view of turning the fundamental right to a decent standard of living into reality, the "poor relative" of the developed states of the European Union, that the policy of the "small" state is largely responsible for the vulnerability of our society in the current crisis and - as a possible solution aimed at contributing to the effectiveness of the right to a decent standard of living, the opinion according to which: "The quality of life in a governed by law, democratic and social state, a quality of life which is generated by fundamental social rights, should be declared, by law, a component of national security and of the safety of the person, as a human being" is appropriated. [ FROM AUTHOR]

Moroccan Stock Exchange market topology in crisis and non-crisis periods

This paper seeks to investigate the dynamics within the Moroccan Stock Exchange (MSE) market topology in crisis and non-crisis periods using daily historical log returns of sectoral indices covering the period from January 4, 1993 to September 9, 2021. The study applies the Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering (AHC) implemented on the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance matrix over ten sub-periods covering numerous crises, from Subprime mortgage crisis to European debt crisis and finally COVID-19 crisis. The obtained clustering results are gathered into a network to display the cumulated interconnections between the sectoral indices. The findings showed that the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) market clusters composition is dynamic during the studied period. Indeed, some sectoral indices demonstrated evidence of strong similarities by gathering in the same cluster over numerous sub-periods as the couples Electrical & Electronic Equipment and Transport or as Banks and Construction & Building Materials sectoral indices. Moreover, the interconnections of CSE sectoral indices are trend dependent. According to the obtained network, the Oil and Gas demonstrated its centrality. © The author(s) 2022. This publication is an open access article.

Teaching an undergraduate elective on the great recession (and the COVID-19 recession too)

The authors describe an undergraduate economics elective focused on the Great Recession and the recession resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. They have taught the course with great success at both liberal arts colleges and research universities and at all levels of the curriculum ranging from a first-year seminar to an upper-level elective. They present a roadmap for instructors interested in offering the class. Although intermediate macroeconomics is assumed as a prerequisite, the authors discuss how they have adapted the class for students with different backgrounds. The course is divided into seven units: the housing bubble and asset pricing, housing policy and history, propagation and panic, monetary policy, fiscal policy, aftermath and international perspectives, and the macroeconomics of COVID-19. Sample assignments and readings are both provided.

Global DSGE Models

We introduce our GDSGE framework and a novel global solution method, called simultaneous transition and policy function iterations (STPFIs), for solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The framework encompasses many well-known incomplete markets models with highly nonlinear dynamics such as models of financial crises and models with rare disasters including the current COVID-19 pandemic. Using consistency equations, our method is most effective at solving models featuring endogenous state variables with implicit laws of motion such as wealth or consumption shares. Finally, we incorporate this method in an automated and publicly available toolbox that solves many important models in the aforementioned topics, and in many cases, more efficiently and/or accurately than their original algorithms.

Corona virus disease 2019-associated liver injury in cold regions

The corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has created a global health and economic crisis. Our studies uncovered that in addition to respiratory symptoms, liver damage is also common in COVID-19 patients;however, the cause of liver damage has not been fully elucidated. In this article, we summarize the clinical manifestations and pathological features of COVID-19 reported in published relevant studies and delineate the etiology and pathogenesis of COVID-19-related liver injury. We speculate that cold stimulation may be associated with COVID-19-related liver injury, which should be considered in clinical decision-making and treatment of COVID-19 in cold regions. [ FROM AUTHOR]

Financial contagion drivers during recent global crises

Whenever a crisis hits, it is likely to spread simultaneously among stock markets due to their interconnection. This phenomenon, known in the literature as financial contagion, may have a long-lasting effect and manifest itself in herd behavior. A sample of worldwide MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) indices covering the subprime, European, and COVID-19 crises is used to study the presence of contagion, its transmission channels, and potential herd behavior. These channels—real linkages, financial mechanisms, or investor beliefs—are proxied by macrofinance factors. Their impact on stock correlations is tested using an extension of the dynamic conditional correlation model that includes external regressors. Results show evidence of contagion during the three crises, driven mainly by investor expectations and their effects on volatility. Moreover, during the COVID-19 crisis, the dissemination of information, as measured through text-based indices, played a significant role in market contagion and led to herd behavior.

Asia’s financial interconnectedness: Evolution, implications, and insights from past crises

Past crisis episodes have illustrated the interplay of macroeconomic and financial conditions, including the presence of harmful macrofinancial feedback effects. Meanwhile, financial markets have become increasingly connected and economic and financial cycles more synchronized over time. Against the backdrop of past financial crises and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we document and analyze trends in Asia’s financial interconnectedness over the past 3 decades, as well as its possible role in predicting financial crises. Employing a vector-autoregressive model and a panel probit regression, we find that financial interconnectedness increased across Asia and the Pacific, being particularly pronounced during past crises, including the present COVID-19 pandemic. We also find that increased interconnectedness is strongly and positively associated with the probability of crisis onset.

Dependence dynamics of stock markets during COVID-19

Stock markets have exhibited increased returns connectedness during the COVID-19 period. We examine the returns dependence among 42 stock markets classified under various emerging and developed groupings. We apply several dependence measures to examine the returns connectedness among the markets. Our results show that stock markets from the G-7 and Emerging Frontier and Asian (EFA) region exhibit high connectedness with other international markets, while Middle East and North African (MENA) and Latin American (LA) stock markets offer high diversification opportunities through low returns connectedness. The returns coherence of Central and East European (CEE) and G-7 markets increase significantly during the COVID-19 period which supports the hypothesis of contagion. However, during the pandemic MENA stock markets (excluding Greece) and most EFA markets (excluding China, Singapore and Korea) remain less cointegrated with other international equity markets. Our results have implications for individual and institutional investors, fund managers and other financial market stakeholders.